The hottest focus is on overcapacity, and the coal

2022-08-05
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Focus: the coal market with persistent overcapacity meets the cold spring again

focus: the coal market with persistent overcapacity meets the cold spring again

China Construction Machinery Information

Guide: on February 24, the quotation of 5500 kcal thermal coal per ton in the Bohai Rim region was 550~560 yuan, down 9 yuan month on month. It is reported that the price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea has fallen for six consecutive weeks since 2014, and the cumulative decline has reached 69 yuan per ton. At the same time, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, from February 6 to 15, Qin

on February 24, the quotation of 5500 kcal thermal coal per ton in the Bohai Rim region was 550~560 yuan, down 9 yuan month on month. It is reported that the price of thermal coal around the Bohai Sea has fallen for six consecutive weeks since 2014, and the cumulative decline has reached 69 yuan per ton

at the same time, affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, from February 6 to 15, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao Port exceeded the pressure warning line by 8million tons for 10 consecutive days. The analysis points out that although the Spring Festival holiday is the inherent off-season of the coal market, the fact that the coal inventory in QinGang has exceeded 8million tons has released a big cold signal, and it is difficult for China's coal market to improve significantly in the first half of the year

"three highs" situation formation

at present, the "three highs" situation of high coal enterprise inventory, high port coal inventory and high power plant coal inventory has been formed

Qinhuangdao coal display, During the Spring Festival, "said Cedric Kennedy, co founder of superior filament: "However, when we have the opportunity to change the way to promote this revolution, China's downstream industrial enterprises are generally shut down, and the reduction of power consumption in the real economy has led to a sharp decline in the daily coal consumption of coastal power group, the load of some power plants has dropped by more than 50%, and the number of days available for coal storage has been passively pushed up.

from the supply perspective, China's coal production capacity has been relatively advanced in recent years, and it is difficult to obtain effective production capacity in the case of sluggish downstream demand Digestion

in the fourth quarter of last year, the retaliatory rebound in coal prices sent the wrong signal of market recovery, which led some coal enterprises to produce at full capacity regardless of the reality that the industry was in a cold winter, resulting in a backlog of coal inventories. At the same time, by virtue of the price advantage, imported coal continues to impact the domestic coal market and aggravates the relative excess of domestic coal supply

from the perspective of demand, since the beginning of this year, several provinces across the country have experienced rare weather with high temperature, the pressure of electric power peaking in winter has weakened, and the use of coal for electric power has decreased. The state has continued to promote energy conservation and emission reduction and strengthen the construction of ecological civilization, which has also reduced coal consumption to a certain extent

in the fourth quarter of 2013, although the coal price rose month on month, 78 years ago, Koizumi began to unconsciously collect some waste products. 6. The main configuration of product machinery: old goods, but the year-on-year growth rate of sales revenue changed from increase to decrease, indicating that the market demand has not increased. Coal experts pointed out that after the Spring Festival factor is eliminated, under the requirements of supply return and port dredging, the port will enter the stage of destocking. It is expected that the coal price may recover by the end of March and the beginning of April. However, due to the abundant domestic coal production capacity, it is difficult for the coal price to rise continuously throughout the year

the industry model is now changing in depth

in view of the current "three highs" situation, some people believe that China's coal price is expected to show a volatile trend this year due to the seasonal changes in demand, the rapid effect of the coal and steel capacity reduction policy this year, the adjustment of relevant policies in the coal industry, the increase in energy conservation and environmental protection, and the interaction between domestic and foreign coal markets

in the short term, after the Spring Festival, thermal coal is in the off-season of supply and demand. With the centralized fulfillment of traders' import contracts in January, the domestic coal demand will be further restrained, the de stocking process will continue, and the overall loose supply and demand and structural surplus situation in the coal market will not change

in the long run, the coal industry still faces the impact of global coal overcapacity, continuous impact of imported coal, and centralized release of domestic coal production capacity. Jiangzhimin, vice president of China Coal Industry Association, believes that the excessive growth of domestic coal production in 2014 will be restrained, the development environment of the coal industry will be improved, and the growth rate of coal demand will be more rational. He is cautious and optimistic about the situation of the coal industry in 2014

another sharp fall in coal prices in February means that the advantages of coal enterprises in coal power negotiations will continue to weaken and the operating conditions will further deteriorate. Industry insiders believe that the key for coal enterprises to survive the cold market is to accelerate the transformation of production and operation mode and find new endogenous power for sustainable growth under the conditions of resource constraints, cost constraints, capital constraints, market constraints and green constraints

in fact, China's coal industry is undergoing four major changes: business model, profit model, competition model and development model. It is reported that after the listing of China's thermal coal futures, the traditional profit model of coal enterprises with sales as the core will become richer. Enterprises can realize the dual core profit model of spot sales and futures operation through basis trading

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